Review: You will love or loath this book: The Black Swan.
You will either think the author is brilliant, witty, passionate and insightful, or you will find him a pompous, egotistical, irritating blowhard.
I actually enjoyed the book, but my partner couldn’t get past the first chapter.
Ironically, all you need to read is the first chapter or two. The rest of the book just elaborates on the same points.
The premise of the book is simple: a black swan is an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
These extreme events have a huge impact on the world. However, because they are hard to predict with traditional statistical methods, we disregard the possibility that they could ever happen. The 2008 financial crisis is a good example of this.
That’s all you really need to know. You can read the first chapter and decide for yourself if this is the book for you.